StormZ Data Signals

StormZ tracks evolving atmospheric structures associated with tropical cyclone formation.

Each day, candidate storm systems are detected, scored, and tracked forward in time to identify risk drift, persistence, and potential genesis windows. StormZ combines satellite-derived atmospheric signals with historical storm data to estimate where and when storm development may occur. Data sources include NASA MERRA-2, EU ERA reanalysis, and NOAA IBTrACS storm records.

What StormZ Shows

The StormZ map displays daily storm-risk drift derived from tracked atmospheric candidate groups. Each visible spiral represents a persistent atmospheric structure that has shown signals associated with storm development. Risk structures are detected from divergence patterns between total column water vapour (TQV) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) — a known indicator of convective activity. Clicking a spiral reveals the candidate’s estimated genesis window, persistence history, and associated atmospheric signals.

Core Signals

StormZ combines several atmospheric indicators into interpretable risk signals:

GRI – Global Risk Index: Composite risk indicator combining atmospheric instability and energy imbalance.

SCI – Storm Coupling Index: Degree to which atmospheric instability is organizing toward storm formation.

EII – Energy Imbalance Index: Strength of atmospheric energy divergence available to power storm growth.

REOI – Regional Energy Oscillation Index: Historical volatility context for the region.

Convection Amplitude: Strength of divergence between water vapour increase and longwave radiation decrease.

Convection Spike : Late-stage surge in convective activity often preceding storm formation.

Persistence: Tracks that appear repeatedly over several days have higher confidence.

Genesis Window: Estimated time range in which storm formation may occur.

How to Read the Map

Pale Sun Symbol: Indicates a tracked atmospheric candidate associated with storm risk.

Heat Field: Represents the regional storm risk anomaly derived from atmospheric volatility.

Centroid Marker: Approximate center of the detected atmospheric structure.

Spiral Growth: Spiral size increases as risk approaches its peak.

Imminence Signal: Risk structures approaching a predicted genesis window become more prominent.

StormZ Reporting Fields

Subscriber reports provide detailed diagnostic fields describing each tracked atmospheric structure. These include:

⇒ Atmospheric signals
⇒ Water vapour / radiation divergence metrics
⇒ Convection amplitude and spike signals
⇒ Rotational instability measures
⇒ Structural diagnostics
⇒ Persistence of candidate structures
⇒ Centroid drift and spatial extent
⇒ Track continuity and clustering behaviour
⇒ Genesis timing estimates
⇒ Predicted genesis center date
⇒ Early and late bounds of the estimated window
⇒ Confidence and uncertainty measures
⇒ Risk aggregation
⇒ Maximum and mean risk signals across tracked groups
⇒ Composite indices such as SCI, EII, IAI, and GRI
These fields allow analysts to examine how atmospheric structures evolve before storms form, enabling deeper investigation into storm development patterns.